Maverick Viñales has only a 50/50 chance of returning to MotoGP at the Red Bull Ring next weekend, according to KTM motorsport director Pit Beirer. The Tech3 rider has stepped away from racing again because of continuing problems with the shoulder he initially injured at Sachsenring last July. Beirer stressed that a return in Spielberg is still far from confirmed.

During the summer break, Viñales was diagnosed with a small tear in the infraspinatus. Beirer said the main functional deficit is in external rotation: the injured arm has much less power than the other one. That loss of strength makes it difficult for Viñales to change direction quickly and move the RC16 from one side to the other. The problem is therefore not simply whether he can sit on the motorcycle and ride it.

The rider’s position through the corners can look normal, and so can the motorcycle’s data. The decisive weakness appears during the transition from left to right or right to left, when the RC16 has to be forced over quickly. Viñales’ team, the Italian doctor who performed his surgery and both of his physiotherapists are discussing the situation together. Beirer hopes Viñales will have another check-up on Monday, but the decision will depend on medical clearance.

If Viñales is not cleared, test rider Pol Espargaró will continue as his replacement for the final European round before the flyaway events. Viñales is also set to leave KTM and MotoGP at the end of the season. For 2027, Luca Marini’s move to Tech3 is already confirmed, while rookie Senna Agius is expected to complete the line-up as Marini’s team-mate. That makes the Red Bull Ring decision important both for Viñales’ immediate campaign and for KTM’s final European round with its current arrangement.