Motegi was the setting for Marc Márquez’s seventh MotoGP world title. His next return to Japan is a very different assignment: the championship leader is only 12 points ahead, but Márquez needs a haul of 37 points and losses from Martin to keep his challenge alive. The Japanese Grand Prix is therefore less a celebration of the past than a pivotal test of whether the Ducati rider can continue his comeback.

On 28 September 2025, Márquez finished second at Motegi to secure his seventh world championship, his first with Ducati. That result also matched Valentino Rossi’s total of seven premier-class titles. The achievement carried extra weight because, five years earlier, Márquez had suffered a serious arm injury at Jerez and required four major operations while trying to return to his previous level.

At the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix, Márquez had taken his final podium with Honda. His move to Gresini Ducati was confirmed a few days later, providing the fresh start that would show whether he could again perform like the rider who won six championships between 2013 and 2019. Two years later, the answer arrived at Motegi in factory Ducati colours.

A remarkable recovery with a physical cost

The present challenge has a different shape. A few days after lifting the 2025 title, Márquez suffered a shoulder injury at the Indonesian Grand Prix, and its effects proved more serious than initially understood. He no longer wants to keep revisiting the subject of his arm, but his surgeon recently said that the right bicep is functioning 50% below full capacity. Physical management is consequently part of the championship calculation, not a separate footnote.

Márquez was once 102 points behind the championship lead. Five Grand Prix wins later, he reaches Motegi only 12 points adrift, although his recovery has also been helped by rivals dropping points at crucial moments. He swept both races at the Hungary, Germany and Aragon rounds, won the main race at Brno and took victory at Misano after Marco Bezzecchi and Jorge Martin suffered misfortune.

Austria brought a less rewarding outcome. Márquez finished on the Sprint podium, then a brake problem left him fifth in the main race. Martin extended his advantage to 12 points and Bezzecchi finished third. Ducati remains a competitive package, but it has not delivered the same consistency at every venue as it did previously. Assen and Silverstone, in particular, showed the Aprilia’s strength when Ducati failed to find the right operating window.

The tyre question at a resurfaced Motegi

Motegi’s stop-and-go layout should favour Ducati, while Aprilia has a weaker record at the circuit; Bezzecchi’s fourth place was its best result there last year. The resurfaced track introduces a new variable, however. Michelin is bringing an expanded selection of tyres, including a hard rear with the stiffer carcass used in Austria.

If the new asphalt proves particularly abrasive and makes the hard rear the better race option, Ducati could lose some of its expected advantage. Aprilia is able to bring that tyre into its operating range more effectively, creating a potential weakness for Ducati and Márquez before the weekend has properly begun. The choice will be shaped by how the new surface treats the available compounds and carcasses.

The calendar offers little relief after Japan. Indonesia follows, a venue associated with difficult memories for Márquez, and the stiffer rear carcass will return there. Mandalika is also demanding physically. Phillip Island comes next and was strong for Aprilia last season, while Sepang is not one of Márquez’s most favourable circuits. Qatar gave him a more positive story in 2025, but the event is not guaranteed to go ahead because of the war in Iran. Portimão follows, before the season ends at Valencia’s anticlockwise Ricardo Tormo circuit, which should suit Márquez more closely.

Márquez has identified his motorcycle and his team as his principal advantages. The memory of his 2025 title and the support of the Japanese fans add another source of motivation. This return to Motegi will nevertheless be decided by execution: Ducati must make its circuit advantage count, the tyre choice must not become a liability, and Márquez must control the physical toll. If he does that, the battle with Martin and Bezzecchi remains open. If not, the space for another comeback will shrink quickly.