The 2026 MotoGP title fight is entering its closing phase with Jorge Martin two points ahead of Marc Marquez after the Mandalika Grand Prix. Aprilia’s technical director, Fabiano Sterlacchini, has singled out Sepang and Qatar as the two venues causing the greatest concern for the factory.

Five rounds remain: Phillip Island, Sepang, Lusail, Portimao and Valencia. Marco Bezzecchi is third, 46 points from the lead. Aprilia’s Mandalika weekend produced a historic sweep of the top four positions, but its advantage was not fully reflected in the Sprint standings. Raul Fernandez and Bezzecchi collided at the first corner, while Martin fell back after tyre-pressure trouble and a mistake. Marc Marquez took the Sprint win and moved temporarily into first place. Martin recovered in Sunday’s Grand Prix, although he did not gain ground overall on his rival.

The warning signs from Lusail and Sepang

Last year’s results show why Aprilia is cautious. At Lusail, Ai Ogura was the manufacturer’s leading rider in qualifying, starting tenth and finishing seventh in the Sprint. Marco Bezzecchi was Aprilia’s best performer in the Grand Prix, taking ninth. Marquez had a much stronger weekend: he claimed pole position and won both races.

Sepang was an even tougher reference point. No Aprilia reached Qualifying 2, while the company’s best results were seventh in the Sprint and tenth in the Grand Prix. Ducati won both Malaysian races, with Pecco Bagnaia taking the Sprint and Alex Marquez winning the Grand Prix.

Martin also faces a lack of RS-GP experience at several of the remaining circuits. He has not previously raced the Aprilia at Phillip Island, Sepang—apart from a handful of testing laps in 2025—or Portimao. His previous return from injury in Qatar ended with a serious injury, and he later withdrew from another comeback attempt at last year’s Valencia finale.

Orders may soon become necessary

Sterlacchini considers the other remaining venues potentially more favourable to Aprilia and describes Valencia as neutral. He also points to Marquez’s usual strength at circuits dominated by left-hand corners. Ducati, meanwhile, has riders with established form at Sepang, including Alex Marquez and Bagnaia, although Bagnaia is already mathematically out of the championship fight.

Aprilia has so far allowed its riders to compete without team orders, a policy that was visible at Mandalika. Sterlacchini said that will not last indefinitely: the team intends to allow one or two more races before drawing a line and beginning to issue instructions. Aprilia can count on several bikes capable of fighting near the front, while Ducati and Marc Marquez bring substantial title-winning experience. How those two advantages are managed could shape the final stages of the championship.