Marc Marquez now sees retirement as the more likely outcome within the next three years. The seven-time world champion puts the odds of having stopped racing by then at 70%, compared with a 30% chance of still competing. The timeframe broadly runs alongside the end of his next contract with Ducati.

Marquez has signed to remain with Ducati’s factory squad for two more seasons. The agreement was reached earlier this year while his physical condition remained uncertain because of the aftereffects of a shoulder injury suffered last October. He will be 35 when the deal expires. His cautious forecast reflects a career marked by several serious injury setbacks, rather than a lack of immediate sporting success.

A championship changed his view of the finish line

The short-term competitive picture is still strongly in Marquez’s favour. Following the Australian Grand Prix, he held a 10-point advantage over the injured Jorge Martin, with four rounds remaining. Marquez recovered from a serious arm injury in 2020 and claimed his seventh world title the following year. That championship was also his first with Ducati.

Marquez says the 2025 title reshaped the way he thinks about retirement. Even if he does not add another championship, he expects to leave satisfied and at peace with what he has already achieved. Valentino Rossi continued racing into his 40s, but Marquez is placing greater emphasis on fulfilment than on extending his career to a particular age.